Public investment in education: an optic illusion
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The European Commission recently published the report “Investing in Education 2025”, based on data from 2019–2023.
According to the report, in 2023 public expenditure on education in the EU accounted for 9.6% of total public expenditure, most of which went to school education (70%); within this, 35% was allocated to pre-primary and primary education, 37% to secondary education, and 16% to tertiary education.
However, the share of public investment in education as a proportion of total public investment in 2023 remained well below historic levels (10.4% in 2007) and even below pre-pandemic figures (10% in 2019). Moreover, when comparing real public expenditure with nominal expenditure, the trend appears even less encouraging.
Despite this, the Commission presents these figures as positive, highlighting “early signs of recovery” in national shares of public spending devoted to education. But is this truly the light at the end of the tunnel, or a swan song?
It is worth noting that the data ends just before the adoption of the EU’s economic governance reform in 2024. The Commission argues that the Union of Skills initiative and the new governance framework will create more opportunities for quality investment in education.
Yet, ETUCE and many scholars observe a different reality: the reform is compressing public expenditure. Shares of investment in education may appear higher, while in nominal – and especially real – terms they are decreasing. The outlook for public investment in education is therefore bleak, and post-2024 figures are likely to confirm this.
Another issue raised by the report is Europe’s adverse demographic trend. Under the baseline scenario, the EU’s population aged 3–18 will shrink by 3.5% between 2022 and 2030: around 2.5 million fewer people.
The Commission suggests that this decline could benefit education systems, as fewer students might alleviate teacher shortages and allow for higher investment per student, smaller classes, and better services.
This optimistic view, however, ignores other pressures. An ageing population will increase demand for pensions and healthcare, reducing the public investment available for education. Furthermore, a smaller active workforce and a less productive European economy would mean fewer public resources overall to fund public services.
ETUCE acknowledges the analytical nature of the report, but remains deeply concerned about the Commission’s narrative on the future of public investment in education.